Posts by MikeMarsUK

1) Message boards : Projects : ClimatePrediction.Net (AKA CPDN) NEWS (Message 50562)
Posted 18 Sep 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
I think the credits are working now, it looks like all work since the server crashed has been credited. External statistics sites will take a day or two before they have picked up the new figures. There is an anomaly with beta-project credits however.
2) Message boards : Projects : ClimatePrediction.Net (AKA CPDN) NEWS (Message 50289)
Posted 23 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:

The server has come back up in the last few minutes, so presumably the new power supply has been fitted. Still no sign of credits since the 30th but I know they are looking into it.

3) Message boards : Projects : News on Project Outages (Message 50208)
Posted 14 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:

Looks like the situation is continuing to improve at CPDN - uploads of finished models, + downloads of new models now seems to be working (although the pool of available models will run out shortly due to massive pent-up demand, more are due to be generated tomorrow). Credit data may still take another day to appear (it is an overnight batch process).

4) Message boards : Projects : ClimatePrediction.Net (AKA CPDN) NEWS (Message 50185)
Posted 12 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
The admins will get a chance to look at this today, so hopefully ...
5) Message boards : Projects : ClimatePrediction.Net (AKA CPDN) NEWS (Message 50164)
Posted 10 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
They are still working on it. They got the replacement server running yesterday, but first was a problem with a firewall blocking external access to the server, and now that they have fixed that, it looks like the httpd process is rejecting connections. I would guess Monday ...
6) Message boards : Projects : News on Project Outages (Message 50161)
Posted 9 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
Nope, it means that you are getting through to the server (hence the DNS must be OK), but the server itself isn't accepting web connections. Jord has let the admins know.

7) Message boards : Projects : News on Project Outages (Message 50158)
Posted 9 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
A further update - the firewall is now fixed, and should be letting through connections to climateapps2. But the DNS settings for the server need to propagate through the internet (allow up to a day for this to happen everywhere).

8) Message boards : Projects : News on Project Outages (Message 50155)
Posted 9 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
Just had an update from the CPDN admins - climateprediction.net is up & accessible, but while climateapps2 (the key boinc server) is now up, it does not seem to be accessible outside their local network. They are trying to figure out the problem, but at least we know that there are signs of life!!
9) Message boards : Projects : News on Project Outages (Message 50145)
Posted 8 Aug 2013 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
... Unfortunately, I cannot see that... :-( I don't seem to be able to access any parts of the site that I used to be able to access: climateprediction.net, my account page, the forums, etc. ...


Yes, doesn't look like it stayed up for very long. I'm not altogether surprised, they had to unexpectedly move everything onto a brand-new server because the original one was falling to pieces. The new configuration probably isn't quite right yet (CPDN has a lot of customisations on top of the standard version of Boinc). I have to confess, I will be pleased when everything is up again because I only have one model remaining. My money would be on tomorrow.
10) Message boards : Questions and problems : BOINC.exe crashes (Message 19372)
Posted 9 Aug 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:

Looks like it was the list of historical earthquakes getting too long. Good work on the diagnosis and fix. I didn't bother looking at it any further once I'd got my system running again...
11) Message boards : BOINC client : BOINC client exits. (Message 18176)
Posted 3 Jul 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
It might be worth running a stress test on the machine. I like to use Prime95 (which can be downloaded from http://www.mersenne.org/). The Linux version is called mprime.

You need to run one copy per core, making sure that you use the affinity option to keep them from stepping on their own toes. If you can run it for 24 hours without any errors then it is a good way to demonstrate that the hardware side of things is working OK.

(Look in the 'hardware' section of the following post for some ideas, although it is written more with MS-XP in mind. http://www.climateprediction.net/board/viewtopic.php?t=5896. sensors / lm-sensors can be used to detect the CPU temperature since this can also cause intermittent hardware faults)
12) Message boards : Projects : ClimatePrediction.Net (AKA CPDN) NEWS (Message 17354)
Posted 15 May 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
The following is an excellent post from Crandles which describes the various types of climate model available from CPDN.

Science info for selection of tasks
"Crandles" wrote:
This thread deals with science information about the applications available though your preferences. If you are more interested in computing information (and the way the preferences work), see http://www.climateprediction.net/board/viewtopic.php?p=66108#66108

Science Information

General Why

Climate change, and our response to it, is an issue of global importance, affecting food production, water resources, ecosystems, energy demand, insurance costs and much else. There is a broad scientific consensus that the Earth will probably warm over the coming century; climateprediction.net should, for the first time, tell us what is most likely to happen.

The project is therefore aimed more at producing probabilistic estimates than a single best estimate model. To do this, the project needs to run lots of slightly different versions of possible future climates. It does this by varying Parameters of the model.

There is an index of much more science information on the CPDN website at Climate science explained including objectives, strategy etc. For more general information about climate science see the climate science README.

After this brief introduction this page will now look at the three applications available on your preferences page. (Pre 21 December 2007 there were only two options. The third model was previously available from the Seasonal attribution site only but has now been moved to here.):

The three models are:

1. Equilibrium Slab model (UK Met Office HADSM3) - 45 model years

2. Transient (or control) Coupled model (UK Met Office HADCM3) - 160 or 80 model years
3. Seasonal Attribution Model (UK Met Office HADAM3) - 1 year high resolution



1. Equilibrium Slab model (UK Met Office HADSM3) - 45 model years

Explanation of terms:

Follow links for meanings of Equilibrium and Slab.

HADSM3 stands for Hadley Centre (The climate division of the UK Met Office) Slab Model version 3. So this is the name of the model climateprediction.net are using. The Hadley centre is responsible for developing the model, climateprediction.net is just using it.

Why this type of Model?

Climateprediction.net wanted to start with an equilibrium slab model to:

1. Investigate climate sensitivity. This has led to a few papers including

Stainforth et al. Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases, Nature, 433, pp.403-406, January 2005.

Piani et al. Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations, Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, December 2005.

For a fuller list see http://www.climateprediction.net/science/scientific_papers.php

2. It would help gather information to reduce the computing time needed to set up the Transient coupled models.

Sufficient of these model runs for the above purposes had been received when the Sulphur Cycle Model was launched. Hence it was withdrawn (Except for classic which was kept open for the Open University course).

Why is it being re-released? / Number of runs needed

The initial release only set each parameter at one of three values. If the effect of changes in the parameters had only simple linear effects then it would be possible to interpolate for parameter values between the ones handed out easily. As expected, the relationships have been shown to be nonlinear. Ben Sanderson has developed a neural net to estimate these nonlinear interactions. They now want to run some more models using hopefully better parameter values as estimated by the neural net to see if these do produce better models and see how well the neural net manages to do at estimating the nonlinear relationships. If successful, this will be used as an active parameter selection technique for future ensembles using HadGEM (a higher resolution model).

Also Falk Niehörster (Free University of Berlin) is interested in doing comparisons of the hopefully optimised models with a different model (the German ECHAM5 model).

Just 1000 are needed.

Further details of the model

The model is split into 3 phases of 15 years each. These are a calibration phase to teach the slab ocean what values to take to get a realistic and steady climate in the absence of changing forcings. A control phase checks that the values obtained from the calibration phase do result in a steady climate. The final phase introduces a forcing of doubling the CO2 level.

The resolution of the model is 96 longitude by 73 latitude by 19 atmospheric layers.

More advanced information:
Hadley Centre Types of Climate Models
Hadley Centre QUMP project using HADSM3. This is a sister project to CPDN.




2. Transient (or control) Coupled model (UK Met Office HADCM3) - 160 or 80 model years

Explanation of terms:

Follow links for meanings of Transient and Coupled and control.

HadCM3 stands for
Hadley Centre (The climate division of the UK Met Office) Coupled Model version 3. So this is the name of the model climateprediction.net are using. The Hadley centre is responsible for developing the model, climateprediction.net is just using it.

You may get a transient model or you may get a control model. One is of no use without the other as the scientists want to see what the differences are. This is because coupled models take a very long time for the ocean to get into an equilibrium state. If this has not been fully done the model may drift. Comparing to a control model is a way of eliminating this drift and reduces the total computation effort required.

Why this type of Model?

After climateprediction.net had investigated climate sensitivity with an equilibrium slab model, they want to move on to exploring how climate would really evolve with time (The instantaneous doubling of CO2 carried out in the slab model is not realistic). This requires a transient model and more realistic forcings. It also requires a more realistic ocean that can change dynamically hence a coupled model was needed.

This model has stayed at the same resolution. For some impact studies a higher resolution model might be needed. However, halving the length of a cell takes 16 times as much computing time (2*2*2 for 3 spatial dimensions and the timesteps need to be half as long as well). Such high resolution models and high computing requirements are not needed for all purposes. Also, it may well be best to study impacts by a large number of one year models starting from data for 2040 and/or 2080 provided by one of these lower resolution models.

Number of runs needed

A few thousand are wanted to explore a limited set of forcing scenarios and parameters. However, it is easily possible to explore more scenarios and/or more parameters and/or more values for some of the parameters to add many more models that could usefully be run.

Further details of the model

The model starts in 1920 running a hindcast for 80 years. It then continues to run a forecast. The resolution of the model is 96 longitude by 73 latitude by 19 atmospheric layers. There are 20 ocean layers.

The 80 year model starts in 2000 so it does not do a hindcast. This allows different forcing scenarios to be used with model physics that have already been run to 2000. There is no point repeating work that has already been done.

More advanced information:
Hadley Centre Types of Climate Models


3. Seasonal Attribution Model (UK Met Office HADAM3) - 1 year high resolution

Draft info (ie we don't think this had expert review)

The main source for info on this model included here is
this attribution site thread post by Pardeep Pall.

Explanation of terms:

Follow links for meanings of Atmosphere Model.

HadAM3 stands for
Hadley Centre (The climate division of the UK Met Office) Atmosphere Model version 3. So this is the name of the model climateprediction.net are using. The Hadley centre is responsible for developing the model, climateprediction.net is just using it.

You may get an Industrial or Non-Industrial model. For the first experiment (investigating the UK autumn floods in 2000), The Industrial climate models the year 2000. The year starts in March well before the UK autumn floods. Slight changes in the initial conditions change the way the model develops and only rarely will an extreme event like the UK autumn floods appear in the models.

The Non-Industrial models are not 'Pre-Industrial' meaning what the climate would look like in 1750. The models are of the year 2000 but dehumanised. This means how it would be expected that the climate would be if we went back to 1900 and allowed the climate to develop for 100 years with non human influences only.

As there is uncertainty about what this Non-Industrial climate would be like there are a few (at least 5?) different sets of ocean temperature patterns used, based on simulations on many different types of climate model.

Subsequent experiments will be for different time periods and regions.

See also
http://attribution.cpdn.org/about.php and
http://attribution.cpdn.org/extension.php



Why this type of Model?

The aim is to determine the extent to which the risk of occurrence of extreme weather events is attributable to human-induced climate change. The first analysis is directed at the flooding in the UK in Autumn 2000.

The atmosphere has a high spatial resolution. This is necessary when looking at impacts as larger cells may well average out detail that is important. This is probably even more important when looking at extreme events and also when looking at precipitation rather than temperature.

There is a slab ocean which is not allowed to vary from provided sea surface temperatures provided. As we are only modelling one year ocean responses are not wanted. This also makes it easier to specify sea surface temperatures and get the model to react sensibly and not drift away from these specified temperatures.


Number of runs needed

The aim is to complete around 10,000 climate model simulations of each of the Autumn 2000 climates. There is one Industrial and at least 5? such Non-Industrial climates. (Perhaps more can usefully be added as has previously happened with the Jan 07 Extension.) The industrial (A2000) models are identified by _a_ in the model name, whereas the nonindustrial (NIA2000) models have an _n_ in the model name.

Further details of the model

The first experiment's model starts in March 00 and runs for 1 model year. It has a horizontal resolution of approximately 100km2 at mid-latitudes enabling it to reasonably capture the storms and weather patterns associated with the Autumn 2000 UK flooding. There is a single slab ocean layer. This just maintains the sea surface temperatures it has been told to maintain in the same way as phase 1 of the slab model.

The sea surface temperatures have been found to be important to extreme precipitation in the climate model, and this has lead to extra model (such as the Japanese MIROC 3.2) being used to generate different sea surface temperature patterns to further test this dependance.

This first experiment is most interested in certain regions of the globe (Western Europe, India, Southern Africa, and Northwestern USA), so when the climate is uploaded at the end of the model, the climate for these areas is uploaded to the server in greater detail).


ReadMe: Running the model
ReadMe: Climate Science
ReadMe: Crashes and other problems
ReadMe: Backup and restore
ReadMe: Community
13) Message boards : Projects : ClimatePrediction.Net (AKA CPDN) NEWS (Message 17347)
Posted 15 May 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
Project URL: http://climateprediction.net

Summary:
What is climateprediction.net?
Climateprediction.net is the largest experiment to try and produce a forecast of the climate in the 21st century.
To do this, we need people around the world to give us time on their computers - time when they have their computers switched on, but are not using them to their full capacity.
Read more about the experiment

Why?
Climate change, and our response to it, are issues of global importance, affecting food production, water resources, ecosystems, energy demand, insurance costs and much else.
There is a broad scientific consensus that the Earth will probably warm over the coming century; climateprediction.net should, for the first time, tell us what is most likely to happen.
Read more about climate science

What do we want you to do?
You can download a climate model from this website. It will run automatically as a background process on your computer whenever you switch your computer on.
It should not affect any other tasks you use your computer for.
As the model runs, you can watch the weather patterns on your, unique, version of the world evolve.
The results are sent back to us via the internet, and you will be able to see a summary of your results on this web site.
Climateprediction.net uses the same underlying software, BOINC, as many other distributed computing projects.
If you like, you can participate in more than one project at a time.
Go to Boinc / climateprediction.net download page

If you are in the climate research community and are interested in participating in the experiment in a research capacity, the research pages provide some basic background material.


CPDN FAQs
News and Announcements
News feed
'ReadMe' postings

14) Message boards : BOINC client : IRQL_NOT_LESS_OR_EQUAL (Message 17250)
Posted 8 May 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:

Sounds like your PC has hardware problems.

Is it within guarantee?

If not...

* Open it up and make sure that all the fans are running, and that there is no dust on the system

* Try swapping out individual sticks of RAM to see if the problem is specific to one stick of RAM.

* If you have a spare CPU, try swapping it

* Try reducing overclock (if you have overclocked it). Similarly, relax memory timings (if you had tightened them up previously).



Does memtest86+ have an option to keep running after errors?
15) Message boards : BOINC client : file transfer and permissions (Message 17135)
Posted 3 May 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:

If I recall correctly chmod alters filepermissions, but ownership is set via chown? (I'm not too sure, never used chown).
16) Message boards : BOINC client : Stopping BOINC on Linux (Message 17134)
Posted 3 May 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
Try boinc_cmd --quit (note the double - symbol]. The command is in the Boinc directory.
17) Message boards : BOINC client : BOINC (windows) >= 5.10.40 + squid = no scheduler replies (Message 17133)
Posted 3 May 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
I have a vague memory of someone having problems with a squid proxy a few months ago on the CPDN project who discovered that Squid was creating fake ACKnowledgements to packets in order to make the latency look better. I don't know if your problem is similar or not. Also note that my memory is somewhat unreliable...
18) Message boards : BOINC client : IRQL_NOT_LESS_OR_EQUAL (Message 17132)
Posted 3 May 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:
Try running a stress test - I personally like 24 hours of Prime95's torture test (one copy per core using the -A flag).

Take a look at the 'hardware' section of the following post:
http://www.climateprediction.net/board/viewtopic.php?t=5896


If the stress-test passes OK, then it indicates that the issue might be with the drivers, O/S, disk or malware, whereas if it fails it indicates it might be with cpu, ram, cooling, motherboard or PSU.
19) Message boards : BOINC Manager : No Heartbeat seems to be causing DLL error messages (Message 16945)
Posted 29 Apr 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:

I've heard more reports of 5.10.45 raising the wrong message recently, so I'd have to guess that they fixed the V6 branch but didn't backfit the same (simple) fix to the V5 branch.
20) Message boards : BOINC client : No comms through Proxy Sever (Message 16891)
Posted 26 Apr 2008 by MikeMarsUK
Post:

I recall a SQUID-proxy thread over at CPDN a while back.

If I recall correctly the ultimate cause of the problem in that thread was that the SQUID box was faking ACKs in order to make the latency look better. However your problem may be different - it looks like some kind of authentication error.

The user in that case had an alternate proxy which could be used, and swapping the proxy resolved the problem.


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